The global semiconductor market is approaching the end of its inventory cycle, with expectations of reaching a valuation of $1 trillion by around 2030, driven by AI applications, new energy vehicles, 5G, and high-performance computing. Recent signals from China, South Korea, and Japan indicate a recovery trend in the semiconductor industry, reflecting shifts in supply and demand.
In South Korea, semiconductor exports hit a historical high of $13.63 billion in September 2024, marking a 36.3% year-on-year increase. Memory chip exports surged 60.7% to $8.72 billion, with high demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and other advanced products propelling this growth. South Korea's major players, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, continue to dominate the global DRAM and NAND Flash markets.
Despite the strong performance, fluctuations in the memory market have raised concerns. Demand for consumer products remains weak, while AI servers drive most memory demand. As HBM gains market share, it limits the capacity for existing DRAM products, leading to stable pricing for contracts.
TrendForce forecasts slower growth in memory prices, projecting conventional DRAM prices to rise by 0% to 5%, while overall DRAM is expected to increase by 8% to 13%. In China, integrated circuit exports rose by 22%, with total exports growing by 6.2% year-on-year, reflecting a strong overall trade performance amid broad diversification.
China's high-end equipment exports increased by 43.4%, while imports of integrated circuits and auto parts rose by 13.5% and 4.6%, respectively. Notably, trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative reached 15.21 trillion RMB, showcasing expanding international partnerships.
In Japan, semiconductor equipment exports to China soared by 61.6% in August 2024, totaling 179.9 billion yen. This growth underscores Japan’s important position in the global semiconductor supply chain, with machinery comprising 23.2% of total exports to China. Additionally, ASML reported a 21% quarter-on-quarter increase in exports to China, further emphasizing the robust demand for semiconductor technology in the Asia-Pacific region.
These trends illustrate a strong recovery in the semiconductor market, reflecting industry dynamics and the interconnectedness of global supply chains as countries adapt to shifting demands.
