According to Burn J. Lin, a former vice president at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the United States will not be able to prevent Chinese firms like Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC) and Huawei Technologies Co. from advancing in chip technology. Lin asserts that SMIC and Huawei have the capability to utilize existing older machines to produce even more advanced silicon. SMIC, for instance, should be able to progress to the 5-nanometer generation using the machines from ASML Holding NV that it already operates. Additionally, Huawei's introduction of a 7nm processor made by SMIC has generated both admiration in China and concern in the United States.
Lin also suggests that China is likely to explore new materials and advanced chip packaging beyond the 5nm milestone to further enhance semiconductor capabilities. He emphasizes that the U.S. should focus on maintaining its chip design leadership rather than attempting to restrict China's progress, as China is strategically focused on bolstering its chip industry.
Furthermore, industry analysts estimate that Huawei could potentially produce as many as 70 million smartphones using its own Kirin chips by 2024, presenting a significant challenge to competitors given Apple's annual iPhone shipments of approximately 220 million units. Additionally, China's advancements in memory chips, particularly the accomplishment of Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., indicate a successful effort to overcome trade restrictions and strengthen its domestic semiconductor supply chain.
Lin's insights suggest that despite efforts by the U.S. to contain China's technological advancement, Chinese firms are demonstrating the ability to innovate and progress independently in the chip industry, posing significant competition and geopolitical challenges.
